Perspectief 2019-44

Perspectief 102 MH17 – the Ukrainian Context notorious for its corruption and high level of crimes. The ousted Ukrainian President Yanu- kovych originated from here. The Party of regions, which backed Yanukovych, also had its base in the Donbas area. This region was occupied by the Russian forces following the pattern of Crimea. Local pro- Russian activists were mobilized by Russian agents. Simultaneously Russian military troops without insignia entered the region. These troops together with local separatist militia seized key administrative buildings. They hastily organized referendums, which proclaimed two independent “people’s republics” with the capitals in Donetsk and Luhansk. Unlike in Crimea, however, these “republics” were not included to Russia. This better served the Russian goals in Ukraine. The Boris Nemtsov report has summarized Putin’s motifs to in- vade the Donbas: Russia provoked a military conflict with the purpose of creating a favorable nego- tiating position in the dialogue with Western countries. The ceasefire in the Donbass, which the Kremlin is capable of guaranteeing, could then become the basis for lifting the economic and political sanctions against Russia, which became inevitable following the annexation of Crimea. Furthermore, under this scenario, the question of the lawfulness of incorporating the peninsula into the Russian Fed- eration is off the agenda, and while the Western countries do not formally recognize Crimea as Russian territory, they do so in fact. 4 6. Negotiations and hybrid war In order to contain the Kremlin’s advances in Ukraine, the West initiated two processes of negotiations: in Minsk, which included Russia, Ukraine, and the OSCE as official parts, and the representatives of the “people’s republics” in Donetsk and Luhansk as unofficial par- ticipants. The other process included representatives of Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France. It became known the Normandy format. Neither Minsk nor Normandy formats of negotiations could stop the hybrid war of Russia against Ukraine. For Russia, these negotiations, as well as the existence of the “people’s republics” became parts of the hybrid war. The West was unprepared for this kind of war- fare, whose authorship is often ascribed to General Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of the